An eight day lay off usually affects a team in two ways. They are either unfocused and lazy, or completely and energized. For the last eight days, Purdue must have been watching film of Minnesota’s loss to Florida State in the early days of the season. Using an in your face defense that extended at time all the way out to half court, Purdue forced the Gophers to set up their offense far out from the basket, way to far out to allow for entry passes or anything other than desperate drives with the shot clock running out. This stifling defense enabled Purdue to overcome a run by the Gophers at the end of the first half to win 65-53.
In the preview for last night’s game, I mentioned that the Gopher big men would need to have strong performances to free up the outside shooters. Spencer Tollackson and Dan Coleman were not a complete let down. Coleman in fact played his strongest half of the season, nearly getting a double-double in the first half. He was all over the glass and managed to make a few lay-ups. Spencer Tollackson scored 8 points in the first half too, and while they were mostly lay-ups, even easy and open shots have proven to be a difficulty this year. However, without the Gopher guards able to make entry passes, it really didn’t matter how many shots they made, because they just couldn’t get the ball.

Towards the end of the first half, Minnesota was able to force a few turnovers and score in transition. During Minnesota’s run they turned a 10 point deficit into a 3 point lead, but to win on the road, particularly at Purdue, such a run needed to secure a comfortable lead, not just make up for another slow start. It certainly didn’t help that for seemly the 20th time this year, a Gopher opponent was able to score just before the first half buzzer. Wednesday’s edition was supplied by Keaton Grant who knocked a three as time expired from a step in front of mid-court.

The second half was ugly, and just not worth writing much about. So in bullet form:

• The Gophers scored 3 points in the first 10 minutes of the second half.
• Spencer Tollackson was benched after hitting the side of the backboard from about 3 feet out.
• Kevin Payton was booed mercilessly every time he touched the ball after taunting Purdue’s student section.
• Damian Johnson and Lawrence McKenzie needed to be separated by Blake Hoffarber after they nearly punch each other.

Needless to say, this season has been much more successful than last season, but it can’t end soon enough.

Who did what?

• Dan Coleman continues to play aggressively, but may be padding his own stats by getting rebounds off of his own missed lay-ups. He had 10 points on 13 rebounds (5 offensive).
• Spencer Tollackson made his shots, but his ugly flailing miss was just too much for Tubby to take. He also opened the game with three turnovers, all on stupid passes that no one in their right mind should have attempted. Tollackson finished with 10 points and 3 rebounds in 19 minutes of work.
• Al Nolen struggled mightily against the extended defense, and his shot didn’t fall either. He had 5 points and 5 turnovers.
• Lawrence McKenzie tried to hard, and clearly isn’t showing much leadership if he needs to be restrained from hitting a team mate. He had 13 points, but fouled out after only 25 minutes. You can’t make up for an entire mediocre career in one game.
• Lawrence Westbrook had been the most steady Gopher, and a dark horse for team MVP, but his shot just wasn’t falling as he missed everything from the field. He made 4 free throws, and like Nolen, had 5 turnovers.
• Kevin Payton got under the skin of a few thousand people. I didn’t see that coming.
•  Blake Hoffarber couldn’t shoot either, but he was more than happy to follow his shot, and the shot of everyone else. He had 6 points and 3 offensive rebounds.
• Jamal Abu-Shamala had 2 assists.
• Damian Johnson needs to stop shooting from more than 5 feet from the basket. He had 5 points on 2-8 shooting, along with 5 rebounds.

When Minnesota’s schedule came out several months ago, many Gopher fans must have had flash backs to the seemingly dozen or so time when the Minnesota Timberwolves could not pick the right ping-pong ball. The Gophers were selected to play Iowa and Purdue once each, with the Iowa game at home, and Purdue on the road. At first glance, many thought that Minnesota’s prospects for the season immediately took a hit. Iowa was going to awful, and the Gophers would win regardless of where they played the Hawkeyes. Purdue was going to be young and talented, but to young and not quite talented enough to win at The Barn. Fast forward a few months, and the Gophers may have won the lottery. They Hawkeyes beat both Michigan State and Ohio State at home, and Minnesota probably wouldn’t be able to beat Purdue anywhere.

We will find out tonight how the Gophers match up against one of the most surprising teams in the country. The #16/#19 Boilermakers come in to tonight’s game with a record of 21-6 (12-2 in the conference) with their last game being a loss at Indiana over a week ago. Before that, they won 11 straight, and haven’t lost at home since late December when lost by three to Iowa State, the same team Minnesota beat on the road.

Interesting.

Picking games based on common opponents can get out of hand very quickly, and with in six degrees of separation  it is easy to justify almost any team beating the eventual national champion. However, Purdue’s two straight home losses to the Cyclones and to Wofford do show that Purdue is beatable.

Unfortunately for the Gophers, its been a while since the Gophers have accomplished what they would need to do to beat Purdue. Minnesota hasn’t beaten a ranked team on the road, when they themselves were not ranked, since 1985. All of the current Gophers were either in diapers, or not even born. Minnesota coach Tubby Smith was an assistant coach at Virginia Commonwealth.

I write all this because even though Minnesota matches up pretty well with the Boilermakers, and some members of the national media think the Gophers have a chance tonight, it will be something of a minor miracle.

Purdue is young and balanced. No player averages more than 12 points per game, but 9 players average more than 15 minutes and 4 points per game. E’twaun Moore struggled with consistency early in the year, but has scored in double figures  in all but two conference games. In the other two games he scored 9  points. He is also an above average rebounder. Robbie Hummel is a 6′8″ forward, the best rebounder on the team, an also an excellent outside shooter (46% from three). He will inevitably cause match up problems for everyone other than Damian Johnson, assuming Johnson stays out of foul trouble.

Minnesota’s inside game will be the key to an upset. Dan Coleman once was much more active in Sunday’s win over Penn State. Unfortunately this did not translate into points. He will need to have one of his better games and hit the glass hard. Spencer Tollackson will need to play quality minutes, and at the very least pull down 5 rebounds and demonstrate that he is a threat. Jonathan Williams will need to be ready to throw his body around and make the open shot when the opportunity presents itself.

The Gopher back court is good enough to match up with just about any set of guards in the Big Ten. They may not be able to score as well as some back courts, but their excellent defense has been able make up for their occasional lack of scoring punch. However, when Minnesota is struggling on the inside, opposing defenses have made like difficult on the outside.

On talent alone, Purdue should be able to win. They have better athletes, and are not prone to mistakes. Minnesota of course forces a lot of turnovers, but so does Purdue. Purdue on occasion gives up a lot of three pointers (including 7-11 against Indiana) but Minnesota struggles from the outside, especially against athletic teams. Purdue isn’t a great rebounding team, but Minnesota has been flat out awful during several games this season.

I expect a game very similar to Minnesota’s loss at Wisconsin. Minnesota should be able to hang around, perhaps longer than Purdue is comfortable with. But ultimately, there is a reason why Purdue has a chance to win the conference title and Minnesota is playing for its post season life.

Prediction: Purdue 67 - Minnesota 61

Click here for a Purdue perspective.

I’ll just get this out of the way. Yes, I know that a preview should take place before something begins, in this case the Big Ten season. No, I didn’t finish this on time, and probably won’t until the weekend. But, with this year’s longer Big Ten season, I’ll still be done by the time any team has played two games. If this was last year, I’d be right on time.

Since that is taken care of….

They’ve been christened the Baby Boilers, promoted to toddler Boilers after beating then #20 Louisville, and have since been relegated to fetal boilers after a loss to Wofford and giving up the first 16 points of the game in a come back win over Florida International. How could the same team beat a top 20 national power, almost beat one of the best teams in the ACC, and lose to a mediocre Southern Conference team and barely beat Missouri State in the same week? The answer is 7: the combined years of experience of Purdue’s starting line up.

What we know:

Purdue made it to the second round of the NCAA tournament last year and gave eventual national champion Florida is toughest game in the big dance. This all took place a year after a 9-19 disaster of a season. This year’s team will play like either of those teams. The only question is which team will show up on which night.

Carl Landry and David Teague, Purdue’s top scorers from a year ago are gone, but they have been replaced (or more) by super-freshman JaJuan Johnson, Robbie Hummel, and E’Twaun Moore. Like most “impact” freshman, there will be nights of sheer brilliance and not so subtle reminders that 18 year-olds have never been known for their superior decision making skills. If head coach Matt Painter makes it until next year with a full head of hair, he should have his choice of endorsement deals as Purdue will be the team to beat.

Who to watch:

• Scott Martin, one of Purdue’s lesser heralded 5 freshman, is the teams leading scorer.
• Robbie Hummel is averaging 9 points and 6 rebounds, while shooting better than 50% from the floor.
• E’Twaun Moore is Purdue’s highest ranked recruit since Big Dog Glenn Robinson took a bite out of the Big Ten (cliched nicknames were so much easier in the mid-90’s). As if he is on a mission to be the prototypical freshman, he has shown flashes of brilliance (against Loyola-Chicago) and completely disappeared (0-5 from the floor and 1 point against Louisville). At least they can win without him.

How they’ll do:
Wins: Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Iowa, Penn State, at Northwestern, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan

Losses: Michigan State, Illinois, at Penn State, at Illinois, at Wisconsin, at Michigan State, at Indiana, at Ohio State

Record: 10-8 (19-12) Firmly on the bubble, with the ability to win or lose every game on their schedule

What we don’t know:

How long until this team is the best in the league?