Its a good things that Minnesota and Michigan State each have one of the elite coaches in the country, because both teams are in need of a pep talk. Tubby Smith will need to tell the Gophers to focus on how close they came to beating the two best teams they have faced this season, while somehow erasing memories of clanking three pointers and free throws. Tom Izzo will need to convince the Spartans that the Breslin Center isn’t a mystical place where the Spartans can do no wrong, and that there talent doesn’t mysteriously disappear when they leave home. Including MSU’s dreadful (not because of who it was against but how it happened) loss at Iowa, the Spartans have lost 11 of their last 12 road games. The Spartans were able to right the ship against anOSU at home, but the newly rejuvenated Williams Arena is like it was when former Spartan coach Judd Heathcoate cursed the very existence of The Barn.

Two weeks ago when the Spartans and the Gophers played, it was much more competitive than many expected. The Gophers were able to deflect several Michigan State runs, and although they did not win, it was a signal to the rest of the Big Ten and the state of Minnesota that this Gopher teams was worth paying attention to. In that game, Raymar Morgan utterly dominated scoring 31 points and pulling down 10 rebounds. The Spartan big men, while not posting gaudy statistics, were able to clog up the lane rendering Spencer Tollackson as useless as his free throw shooting and dominating the boards. Tollackson went 5-14 two weeks ago, and the Gophers were out rebounded by 20.

So what should we expect today? We should know within the first 5 minutes of the game if the Gophers will have a chance. If they use their two recent close losses as motivation to finally get their signature win, the Spartans could be in for a long day. If the Gophers, and particularly The Barn come out flat, things could get ugly.

The Spartans have the obvious talent advantage, and if Raymar Morgan plays have as well as he did against the Gophers in East Lansing and Drew Nietzel shoots twice as well (both should probably be expected or exceeded) the Spartans should win. For the Gophers, the game may rest on the broad shoulders of Spencer Tollackson. Against Michigan State he missed countless lay ups and against the Hoosiers missed all 7 of his free throw attempts. If Tollackson can make half of his shots from the floor and the line, it could be enough to push the Gophers over the edge.

Another key will be the play of Blake Hoffarber. He has excelled against unathletic teams, but disappeared against Indiana and Michigan State. Right now he is one dimensional player, who happens to have the best jump shot in the Big Ten. In the right kind of game, he can be a game changing weapon. However, against athletic teams he has been unable to get open shots and made defensive blunders that reminded everyone that he is only 18. If Blake can get into double figures, which may have more to do with playing good enough defense to stay on the court, the Gophers should be in good shape.

Finally, as has been the case all season, Dan Coleman will need to show up. He played his most obvious game on Thursday against Indiana. In previous games he has either not shown up at all, or put up very good stats but done so so quiety that his impact on the game is only revealed through the box score. Nothing gets the Willams Arena faithful fired up more than a local kid obviously making an impact.

While the Indiana game was an opportunity to make a statement on a national stage, today’s game is an opportunity for the Gophers to make a statement to themselves. For the Gophers to still have a chance to make the tournament, they will need to get over losses quickly and come into the next game with an urgency and confidence to win. No one expects the Gophers to go on long winning streaks during the Big Ten season, but consecutive losses can be devestating.

Today’s game may be the most important of the season.

Prediction: If the Gophers have gotten over Thursday’s loss: 75-70 Minnesota

If the Gophers come out flat: 68-53 Michigan State

Two days later and I am still shaking my head. After sitting in a bar/sandwich shop in the middle of a deserted University of Minnesota campus, watching the Gophers play Michigan State, I found myself forgetting that I was watching the same Gopher team that lost badly to UNLV just a week earlier. Could the Gophers really come back from a 14 point deficit? Are they really within one point with less than four minutes to play? Could I be watching the biggest Gopher basketball upset that I can remember?

I didn’t give the Gophers much of a chance to beat the Spartans. Michigan State is deep, fully loaded, with experienced guards, and Raymar Morgan. Sometimes its good to be wrong. The Gophers showed grit and determination that was in short supply in recent years, and seemed to take Michigan State’s punches as challenges rather than reasons to shrink away. There may not be such a thing as a moral victory, but this loss was more impressive than any of the Gopher wins.

In my game preview and I said the Gophers could win with the right game plan, and I was almost right:

• Short shot clocks and less pressing: The Gophers rarely pressed and did an excellent job of forcing Michigan State to use a lot of the shot-clock, at least when the Spartans didn’t beat the Gophers down the floor. Drew Neitzel, Michigan State’s not so All American anymore guard played a terrible game, shooting only 2-11 from the floor. The entire roster was plagued by turnovers, 19 in all. If the entire game was played in a half court situation, the Gophers could have won by ten, but their occasional mental lapses and perennial lack of team speed allowed Michigan State to simply run around, past, and through the Gopher defense all to often. Unlike the Gophers, the Spartans didn’t have a problem making lay ups.
• Damian Johnson needs to neutralize Raymar Morgan: Damian Johnson played an excellent game, and played 26 minutes (second most on the team) but Morgan treated him like a speed bump. He scored a career high 31 points, pulled down 12 rebounds, and was subsequently named Big Ten player of the week. Raymar Morgan would not let his team lose.
• Al Nolen needs to play the game of his life: While there is no statistical threshold to determine a game of someone’s life, I will give Al Nolen the benefit of the doubt. Neitzel couldn’t make anything. When he wasn’t frustrating the Spartan star he was stepping into passing lanes (he finished with 4 steals) and distributing the ball (7 assists). He attempted a few ill-advised shots and committed a turnover in a crucial situation, but don’t listen to anyone (including a certain Strib writer) suggesting that he lost the game. Without his solid a mature play, the game would have been lost much, much earlier.

• Blake Hoffarber needs to get hot: For whatever reason, Hoffarber didn’t get much playing time. He made both his shot attempts at scored five points, but he was generally a non-factor.

Despite not quite excelling in these areas, the Gophers still had a chance to win, and how they lost is what has me shaking my head. When watching a game without hearing any announcers or seeing any statistics, its easy to notice trends, but not necessarily easy trust your judgements. I knew the Gophers were getting out rebounded, missing lay ups, and clanking free throws, I just didn’t know how badly. My near giddiness from a near upset quickly turned into frustration as I realized the Gophers simply gave the game away.

While I refuse to blame any individual for a team loss (there are simply too many plays, situations, variables, freak incidents, etc in a 40 minute game for any individual to lose the game unless their name is Chris Webber) it is difficult not to point a finger at Spencer Tollackson. He missed lay-up after lay-up, despite getting excellent position against Michigan State’s front line and forcing them into foul trouble. He shot 5-12 from the floor and 2-6 from the free throw line for 12 points. But, he also led the Gophers in scoring. Oh the complexities of college basketball.

Even if Tollackson didn’t make a single shot, the Gophers still could have won, but they couldn’t overcome the reoccuring plague of poor rebounding. Despite both teams shooting the ball 55 times, Michigan State out-rebounded the Gophers by 20. Long rebounds, superior athleticism, whatever you would like to blame for this disparity, the Gophers couldn’t crash the boards, and they ultimately lost because of it.

The Gophers went into one of the toughest arenas in the country against the best team in the conference, didn’t play exceptionally, and only lost by six. I definitely can’t complain.

Who did what:

• Lawrence McKenzie shot the ball from far, far away, but didn’t come close to helping the Gophers win. He finished with 10 points on 2-7 shooting. The senior enigma continues.
• Dan Coleman got into early foul trouble and played exactly five minutes more than Kevin Peyton. The senior enigma continues.
• Lawrence Westbrook played solid defense, but also found himself running the point as the first half clock wound down. It didn’t turn out well.
• Spencer Tollackson was simultaneously the worst player on the court and the Gophers leading scorer. I don’t know what that means.
• Al Nolen can’t be a freshman. I refuse to believe it.
• Kevin Payton was bad. Myron Medcalf is worse.
• Jonathan Williams didn’t do much but miss layups like Tollackson. He finished with 2 points.
• Blake Hoffarber made a first half three, a layup in garbage time, and sat next to Ryan Saunders.
• Travis Busch played in the first half, made his only shot, and didn’t do anything glaringly bad.
• Damian Johnson played well, but not spectacularly. He finished with 6 points, a team leading 4 rebounds (ouch), 3 steals, and a block.
• Ryan Saunders got more face time than he deserves. Now the whole world knows that he is Flip’s son and stellar hair gel.
• Both Jamal Abu-Shamala and Indiana Jones have survived the stare of death. Indiana Jones got his heart back, and Jamal hit a big three and finished with 6 points.

Saturday night’s game between Minnesota and Michigan State will inevitably be overshadowed by the coaching match-up between Tubby Smith, coaching his first game in the Big Ten, nd Tom Izzo, coach of the inevitable (but not Hillary Clinton “inevitable”) Big Ten Champions. At least the announcers and graphics guys will have plenty of statistics and bar graphs to show us, because in all likelihood there won’t be much worth watching on the court.

If Michigan State’s recent big wins (Texas and BYU) are at all indicative of how they will play Saturday night, Minnesota is in big trouble. Michigan State received a lot of attention because of their loss to D-II Grand Valley State, but that was nothing but an anomaly, as rare as a virgin birth (Christmas wasn’t that long ago, and its pretty fascinating). If anything, it was the perfect wake up call to start the season, reminding the Spartans that they aren’t invincible and that they do actually have to score more points than their opponents. An overconfident, invincible-feeling team may be the Gophers only hope. In nearly every match-up, from the leading scorers down to the student managers, the Spartans have the advantage, except of course the battle of the hair. Ryan Saunders wins again.

The Gophers only real hope is to slow the game down, and keep the Spartans in the 60s. When the Spartans are in the 60s, they only outscore their opponents by 2.3 ppg. Doing this is much easier said than done. The Gophers have had their best defensive games (in terms of points allowed) when they force a lot of turnovers. Unfortunately, most of these turnovers occur when the Gophers press incessantly, which tends to speed the game up. Both UNLV and Florida State, two much faster and more athletic teams than the Gophers, were able to break the press and get easy baskets. Even South Dakota State and Colorado State scored easily against the press once they learned not to inbound the ball to the corner or pick up the dribble before crossing center court. Minnesota will need to press at some point, but needs to pick their spots, mix it up, and not be afraid to abandon the press if it isn’t working. At the very least, the Gophers should try to play tough half-court defense the first several minutes of the game, and see how far that has gotten them.

But I still think the Gophers can win, I don’t think they will, but its possible.

• If the Gophers press at seemingly random times and shorten the shot clock, it may be enough to keep Michigan State off balance and the scoring low.
• Damian Johnson has the potential to neutralize Raymar Morgan. He won’t score as much as Morgan, but his scoring in addition to forcing turnovers may match Morgan’s contributions.
• Al Nolen could frustrate Neitzel, but will need to play the game of his life on both ends of the floor for the Gophers to have a chance.
• Blake Hoffarber, if he gets hot, could keep the Gophers in the game. Just ask Indiana about the impact a hot shooter can have.

I think one or two of the above might happen, but six three pointers in the last minute and a half of the game probably won’t be enough. I predict that the Gophers will lose 80-65. Anything from a 15-20 point loss is nothing to worry about. If the Gophers win (miraculously) or lose by less than ten, it will show they have learned a lot from their previous losses. Anything worse than a 20 point loss should be cause for concern.

And because I still haven’t gotten around to my MSU Big Ten Preview, here you go:

What we know:

With their win over Texas, Michigan State jumped from a probable champion of a mediocre conference to a legitimate national title contender. Their lone loss came against then #1 UCLA by five points. They should roll through the Big Ten schedule when they aren’t playing Indiana or Wisconsin, and they are capable of beating these teams as well. We may be hearing a lot about this experienced, well-coached team in April.

Who to watch:

• Raymar Morgan has exploded, and would be well on his way to winning conference player of the year if there wasn’t a certain freshman superstar playing in Bloomington, Indiana. He has improved all facets of his game, and not by small margins either: going from 11.7 points to 17.4, 5.2 rebs to 7.1, and 49% shooting to 59% shooting. He still struggles with turnovers (2.5 per game), but even that is just nitpicking.
• Drew Neitzel was on everyone’s pre-season All-America team. His scoring is down (even though he has improved his shooting percentage), but so are his turnovers. He has improved his assist to turnover ratio to 4.29 to 1, which more than makes up for the relative lack of scoring. A team-oriented Neitzel has made everyone better. Now if only he could grow some hair.

How they’ll do:

Wins: Minnesota, Purdue, at Iowa, Ohio State, at Minnesota, at Northwestern, Michigan, Illinois, at Penn State, Northwestern, at Purdue at Indiana, Penn State, Iowa, Indiana, at Illinois

Losses: at Wisconsin, Ohio State

Record: 16-2 (28-3 overall) with a #1 seed.

What we don’t know:

Do the Spartans have long memories, or will they get complacent and run into trouble against a lower tier Big Ten team?