University of Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Colorado State Rams

9:00 pm (CST) at Moby Arena (Fort Collins, Colorado)

Radio: WCCO 830 AM

Tv: The MTN (looks bleak for folks in Minnesota)

Liveblog: Yes, a very special radio only version (I’ll be complaining about “two-timing”)

Not particularly challenging non-conference schedules aren’t all bad. They give lesser-known programs a chance at the more established programs, and give those smaller programs something to get excited about, and in Fort Collins, they are excited.

That is right. Free T-shirts, free tickets, and hopefully free admission to the Damian Johnson show. After missing the entire season so far with a knee injury and that a broken hand, Damian Johnson, Minnesota’s mister versatility is scheduled to make his season debut, and not a moment too soon.

Although the Gophers are so far undefeated, they have done nothing so far to soothe the existential dread that any Minnesota fan of any sports deals with almost daily. Yes we beat Georgia State and Bowling Green, but we did not do so convincingly. Despite building early leads in seemingly easily in both games, the Gophers were outscored in the second halves. The fast-paced tempo that was the standard of last year’s non-conference season has only made brief cameos, and Minnesota’s half-court offense  fluctuated between mediocre and stagnant. We know that Lawrence Westbrook and Al Nolen can drive to the basket with five seconds on the shot clock when they absolutely need to, but we also know Minnesota will need to do a lot better, especially against better competition and especially on the road.

Saturday marks Minnesota’s first road game, and it should also be their first test of the season. Colorado State is in the running for one of the most improved teams of the early season. Of course, after last season, there was only room for improvement. Minnesota easily beat the Rams at Williams Arena by a score of 91-74 as Blake Hoffarber enjoyed something of a coming out party as he scored 21 points. That Rams team only returned one starter and five total players. Two of those players left after an incident involving a hand gun and a players head. This year, there was no such drama and Tim Miles has the team heading in the right direction.

Last season, the Rams were thoroughly embarrassed by Montana, losing 75-39. This season, the Rams beat the Grizzlies 85-55. The Grizzlies probably are worse this year, but a 66 point turn around in one year? I don’t care how much worse Montana is this season, the Rams are much, much better. Even with all of Indiana’s problems this season, I don’t expect we will be talking about a 50 point Gopher win.

The Rams come into Saturday’s game, 2-0 with their other win over Northern Colorado 85-74. The rams play a slightly slightly faster pace than the Gophers, averaging 71 possessions per game compared to the Gophers 65 possessions per game. However, while the Gophers have been anything but efficient on offense, Colorado State has turned themselves into something of offensive juggernaut. The Rams score 119 points per 100 possessions. The Gophers come in only at 98. The Rams have also cut down on their turnovers, averaging only 11 per game. The Gophers have been lucky to not turn the ball over that often per half.

Keys for the Gophers

1. Commit less than 13 turnovers. This might as well be the key for the season, especially with such an inexperience team. Thirteen turnovers marked their lowest turnover total of the season, and was the main reason why they were able to hold off Georgia State, despite shooting only 42% from the floor. With a low turnover total, they’ll be able to survive even if the offense isn’t there.
2. Boards before blocks The Rams have four players 6′9” tall or taller. The block won’t come easy, and if the Gophers try for them, they’ll miss the block and the eventual rebound. With Johnson playing, the Gophers have no reason to get out rebounded.
3. Run with the Rams. Even though the Gophers are used to a slower paced game, they have the athleticism to run. And really, anything to keep the Gophers out of a half court offense is a plus.

Keys for the Rams

1. Make Minnesota work on offense. The slower the game, the better chance the Rams have.
2. Dump it down low. Colton Iverson and Ralph Sampson III have both been susceptible, like many freshman, to stupid fouls. Limiting their minutes would be big.
3. Get the crowd into the game, or at least get a crowd to the game. Five Gophers will be playing their first college road game. The CSU athletic department is trying to generate some hype. If the crowd is big and rocking, the Gophers could get rattled. Caveat: the Rams best attendance came against in state rival Northern Colorado when only 3,136 people showed up. Moby Arena seats almost 9,000.

Key Players for the Gophers

1. Damian Johnson makes his season debut. If he plays his normal minutes, he should get his usual 10 points, 5 rebounds, and 10 others (blocks, steals, assists). More importantly, he should provide a big boost to the Gophers energy level, and create some scary situations for Ram ball handlers.
2. Blake Hoffarber couldn’t miss last year. If he gets hot, Minnesota’s interior players should have a lot of room to work.
3. Devoe Joseph is slowly heading into Kevin Payton territory. Watch to see if he finds his shot.

Key Players for the Huskies

1. Andy Ogide, a 6′9” transfer from Ole Miss is averaging 16 points and 11 rebounds per game while shooting over 70% from the floor.
2. Marcus Walker is the Rams’ Lawrence Westbrook. He’s small but can put up big numbers. He leads the Rams in scoring, and scored an eye-popping 43 last year against Tennessee State
3. Jesse Carr is a floppy haired freshman point guard, who will have his hands full facing Al Nolen.

Prediction: 65- 61 Gopher win

Your Prediction:

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What are your thoughts on Saturday’s game?

It didn’t strike me how odd the NABC classic truly was until Dick Jankowski, the Gophers’ public address announcer mentioned that fans should stay in their seats for the trophy presentation and the announcement of the all tournament team.

First of all, rewarding a trophy in  round-robin “tournament” can be more than a little complicated. If the Gopher’s had lost to Georgia State, there would have been three teams finishing the tournament with identical records, and only the BCS computers or King Solomon would have been able determine who got the trophy.

After vacating most of the 1990’s, the Gophers have plenty of room for trophies, but a round-robin “tournament” featuring two mid-majors and a D-II team doesn’t need a trophy. It doesn’t need a microscopic participant trophy, similar to third place trophy my baseball team won when I was 11, still the only hardware I’ve ever accumulated. It certainly doesn’t need a poorly constructed, obviously cheap former bowling trophy. But what absurd non-tournament wouldn’t have a grotesquely flamboyant trophy for the team pre-destined to win the thing. So I was unpleasantly surprised when this thing was trotted out.

At least Blake is happy, and Damian is amused as usual.

And if there is a championship trophy, the all tournament team needs a trophy and so does the MVP. The former was crystal, the latter was a brass basketball bigger than Lawrence Westbrook’s head, Westbrook being the MVP.

The fans who stuck through all three games, all three of which started well after their scheduled times, were just as enthused. The first game of the non-tournament went to overtime, which led to one of the better student section moments in years as they booed mercilessly and chanted a phrase that would rhyme with casseroles if it wasn’t for that darn middle syllable.

The pep band was also gone for the tournament, so instead of the typical pre-game songs that tend to get people in the mood for college basketball, we were serenaded with “Jock Jams Volume I” and a piped in version of the rouser, including stentorian chanting from what I am guessing is the marching band circa 1975. Nothing like prerecorded chanting! The crowd took the hint from the NBA-like atmosphere, and promptly sat on its hands for three days. Realizing that someone, somewhere must have an I-pod with better music, on Saturday and Sunday Michael Jackson and Prince (Prince!!) were added to the rotation. Sadly, “Sweet Child of Mine” did too, and it is still playing in my head. Not even the alumni band, who were no-doubt hastily called into service on Saturday, could get the crowd to stand for the rouser. With such overwhelming excitement, the crowd had no reason to stick around past half-time any of the three nights. Those who did had the distinct pleasure of sitting through 10 minutes of clock problems during the then-out of reach Georgia State game. Most felt like they were watching “Krapp’s Last Tape“, in which the real star of the play is a tape-recorder. I felt like “Mersault” after he had given up on life, trapped in a nightmare that was all too real.

There was some basketball played too, and the three meaningless games against sub-par competition will be beneficial in the long run.

In Minnesota’s win over Concordia-St. Paul, the Gophers dominated the boards and played excellent half-court defense. Concordia shot less than 30% from the floor as the Gophers out-rebounded them by 22. With so many potential offensive rebounds for the Golden Bears, they missed 38 shots, Minnesota gave up only 8 offensive rebounds. On the other side of the court, the Gophers had 19 offensive rebounds on their 39 missed shots. The big concern of the night was lack of offensive efficiency. The Gophers had 16 turnovers, compared to 18 assists. At about the 15 minute mark of the second half, the offense metamorphosized (absured reference three!) into an offense only Dan Monson could love, but by then the game was all but over except Michael Cunningham’s cowardly pugilism.

In game two against Bowling Green, the Gophers rejected the Falcons attempt at an upset. Led by Colton Iverson’s 9 blocks, and a team record total of 17, the Gophers were able to jump out to a 20 point lead before eventually winning 7. Once again, the offense hit a bit of a wall in the second half. This phenomenon is now a trend, and if it continues could grow worrisome. This offensive fall off was created as much as the Gopher defense as anything else. The Gophers had been very successful forcing turnovers and scoring in transition. However, faced with the prospect of manufacturing points, the Gophers wilted. It is unclear of Tubby Smith turned away from the press to conserve energy, or if he was satisfied that the Gophers could score in transition and he needed to see what they looked like in the half court. Regardless, he’ll have plenty to talk about this week in practice. The final glaring statistic in the box score is Bowling Green’s offensive rebound total. They had 17 offensive rebounds, getting second chances on nearly 35% of their missed shots attempt. Obviously not good totals for the Gophers, but the offensive rebounding is not the whole story. The Gophers appeared to make a conscious decision to block shots instead of rebound, and there was plenty of room underneath as Iverson, Paul Carter, and Ralph Sampson III flew after the shooters.

For the third time in three games, the Gophers built up an early lead against Georgia State, and slowly let it slip away until they put the game away. Rebounding was again a concern as they were out-rebounded by 5 against a team that had neither the size or the bulk to have a reasonable chance to gain an advantage on the boards. They hit the second half offensive wall again, shooting only 7-21 for the half. If the bad shooting was not enough, they had as many turnovers as assists. But in the early season, especially with five new faces, winning at all matters more than the point spread.

A super-three-game-combined who did what?

• Paul Carter largely struggled on the offensive end averaging 6 points and shooting only 22% from the floor. The offense will likely come around, but excelled at what can not be taught: pure, unadulterated athleticism. He averaged 4 rebounds, a steal and nearly two blocks.
• Jamal Abu-Shamala is clearly more confident, and even more clearly wishes he was back in highschool. Forced to play inside more than he is used to, he demonstrated decent post up moves, and averaged 8 points and 4 rebounds while shooting 56% from the floor
• Colton Iverson is the real deal. Yankton, as he will occasionally be known from now on, had 9 blocks against Bowling Green and is averaging 5 rebounds per game. His offense, which is raw but workable, is still mostly put backs and extremely close in shots. Though, last year the Gophers had a center with a goofy name that missed those same shots. In the “is he really a freshman” catagory, he is averaging only one turnover and is making great decisions, especially not forcing the ball down court after a defensive rebound.
• Lawrence Westbrook continues to be option #1 for the offense, averaging 16 ppg. He made 7-8 free throws against Bowling Green and followed that up with 5-5 against Georgia State, most in the final minutes of both games. He will need to cut down on his turnovers though, of which he had 7 in three games compared to only 5 assists.
• Al Nolens offensive exhibition explosion has faded against D-I competition, though he is still averaging 9 ppg. However, he won’t need to score if has more three game stretches in which he averages 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and 4 steals per game while averaging only 1.3 turnovers.
• Ralph Sampson did a bit of everything making 18 foot shots from the corner, getting in foul trouble, nailing hook shots, landing on his eye brow, and establishing a low post presense on both ends. He is still raw, but so was Greg Oden.
• Blake Hoffarber’s shot is still on summer vacation, but I’m not worried. I wonder if I should be worried about his 12 rebounds against Concordia, or that he leads the team with 5.7 rebounds per game.
• Devoe Joseph is having tunnel vision problems. He will occasionally make a brilliant no-look pass, but most of the time he can’t see his obviously open team-mates. As a result, he only played 9 minutes in each of the final two games, and may be slowly sliding his way to the Tubby dog house.
• Devron Bostick is slowly but surely getting better, at least on offense. Defensively he still looks a bit lost. He scored 4 ppg over the weekend, but won hearts and minds thanks to what I am guessing is his family, unless he has already made a lot of friends in Minneapolis. His two brothers/nephews/cousins may have their own TV show by the end of next season.
• Travis Busch continues to play well, and get a lot of minutes (is this a good thing?) On Sunday he shot two three pointers, neither of which hit the rim. Only one went in.
• Kevin Payton played 10 minutes against Concordia, and may get an extra look or two in games when the score isn’t close. He had three rebounds and two assists with no turnover and of course no shot attempts.
• Damian Johnson dressed but did not play. He is expected to be back though against Colorado State, and not a moment too soon.

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University of Minnesota Golden Gophers vs, Northern State Wolves

7:00 pm at Williams Arena (Minneapolis, Minnesota)

Radio: WCCO 830 AM

Tv: None, but streaming live at the Big Ten Network

Tickets: plenty still left, best available is Row 13 in the corner of the upper deck

The Gophers will have plenty to improve upon when they take on Northern State, who was picked to finish second in the Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference. In comparison, Saint Cloud State was picked to finish fifth. The Wolves have had a turbulent off-season, as their coach. the quite legendary Don Meyer battled cancer and a leg amputation.  He is not back at full strength, but he is able to attend games, and will be in attendance on Thursday. The Gophers hope to win in a non-ugly way, and show that they are the better team. On Monday, they won, but it could be argued their win was more of a non-loss.

Keys for the Gophers

1. Cut down on bad turnovers. Most of their turnovers on Monday were unforced errors. Turnovers are part of the games, but giving the ball away should not be.
2. Give the new guys a chance. Ralph Sampson III and Devron Bostick barely saw the floor against Saint Cloud State. Sampson III is sick, so his playing time may be less, but Bostick needs to find his role on the team.
3. Create turnovers. This was the bread and butter of the Gophers success last year. Yes the Huskies had 22 turnover on Monday, but less than half were what could be called forced.

Keys for the Wolves

1. Keep it close.The Gophers never got a 20 point lead on Monday. If the Wolves keep it closer than the Huskies, they could have a chance to win.
2. Beat the press. Saint Cloud State showed the press can be broken, and the Gophers had to abandon it.
3. Take advantage of Gopher turnovers. There will probably be plenty, and subsequently, plenty of chances to score easy baskets.

Key Players for the Gophers

1. Devron Bostick should get more playing time than the other night, and will need to prove he deserves it.
2. Al Nolen showed us he can score, but he needs to score and take care of the ball.
3. Colton Iverson will probably get more playing time than Tubby Smith wants him to have. With Jonathan Williams hurt and Ralph Sampson III sick, he is the only center the Gophers have left.

Key Players for the Huskies

1. Kevin Rasch, a 6′7” forward was picked as the NSIC preseason player of the year. Last season he averaged more than 16 points per game with better than 5 rebounds per game.
2. Sophomore guard Derek Hoellein scored 20 points to lead the Wolves to a win in their first preseason game.
3. Kyle Schwan, a 6′1” guard will need to solve the Gopher press.

Prediction

After Monday, a much more conservative 85-70 Gopher win.

University of Minnesota Golden Gophers vs, Saint Cloud State University Huskies

7:00 pm at Williams Arena (Minneapolis, Minnesota)

Radio: WCCO 830 AM

Tv: None, but streaming live on Bigtennetwork.com

Tickets: plenty still left, a few even in the lower deck

When the Gophers tip off the 2008-2009 season on Monday night, the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers will suit up five new players, none of whom have played one second of major college basketball or played together. The team will be recognizable, only three players left the team, but at the same time will be more athletic and younger than any team in recent memory. While the score should not be close, Minnesota’s talent level and coaching should be more than enough to win even if they do struggle, the opening game of the season could be a bit of a challenge. How the young players react to adversity and success will in all likelihood be the determining factor of the seasons success.

Saint Cloud State, the Division II program best known for their hockey fights, racists, less than steller academic reputation, and meth,  are coming off a 17-11 season, but were the second worst team in their conference. Things apparently are looking up though, as they were picked to finish fifth in their conference preseason poll. They return three starters and add Theo Rothstein, a 6′5” wing from St. Michael-Albertville who should see many opportunities to be a local boy who makes good.

Keys for the Gophers

1. Come out to a quick start. On paper the Gophers are the much better team. There is no reason they should let the Huskies hang around.
2. Limit mistakes without being too careful. A lot of new players with a lot of nervous energy could lead to some sloppiness.
3. Find a rotation that works. The talent is their, but it is important to find the best combination of players to maximize the teams many strengths, and to compensate for the inevitable weaknesses.

Keys for the Huskies

1. Keep it close. If the Gophers get off to a fast start, it will could get ugly fast.
2. Remember to have fun. Most of the Huskies dreamed of being Gophers. This will be as close as they get.
3. Learn something even if they lose. This will be the best team the Huskies play this season, and there will be plenty of opportunities to get used to playing more talented and more athletic teams. If they find something that works against the Gophers, it will work a lot better against Division II teams.

Key Players for the Gophers

1. Paul Carter, the lanky junior college transfer, will be thrust into the spotlight as Damian Johnson continues to recover from a broken hand. Watch how he handles the spotlight if his defense can match his many offensive skills.
2. Devoe Joseph is the first legitimate back up point guard the Gophers have had in years. Watch how big of a drop off there is when Al Nolen leaves the game and Joseph comes in.
3. Colton Iverson came to the Gophers to rebound, but watch to see how he plays on offense and defense. He should have a height advantage, and because of that, a big game.

Key Players for the Huskies

1. Matt Shneck, a 6′8” forward, is the Huskies leading returning scorer. He shot 58% from the field last season.
2. Brett Carmichael, a 6′3” forward is the Huskies top defender, and they are going to need him.
3. Brett Putz, a 6′1” freshman guard average 27.5 ppg in high school. He’ll need at least that amount to keep the Huskies close.

Prediction

This is not hockey and it will not be close. Gophers 93 - Saint Clouse state 65.

Match-ups trump talent. Minnesota, on paper, was a much better team than Illinois. The Gophers beat teams teams that Illinois could not, won more games, had a much better season, and still lost three times to the Illini. They lost to UNLV and Florida State, but in all likelihood could have beaten teams that handled the Seminoles and the Running Rebels. I bring these teams up, because if you saw the disappointing performance that Minnesota turned in during the non-conference season against these two teams, or any of their three losses to Illinois, you should already know what to expect. Tomorrow night has a very real chance to be very ugly, Tulane in 1996 ugly, when the Gophers lost to an athletic team on their home court in the NIT by 18. The Gophers may have deserved a #4 seed in the first round of the NIT, but they are not built to beat a team like Maryland, even on their own court.

Maryland possesses all the characteristics of a team meant to be the Gophers. They are tall, athletic, big, quick, the list could go on. And remember those teams that Minnesota looked especially bad against, the Seminoles and the Illini? The Terps beat Illinois 69-61 during before the Illini imploded, and they beat Florida State by 10. Meanwhile the Gophers lost by 14 to Florida State, and by 24, 9, and 4 to Illinois. Throw in a 17 point loss to a very similar team from UNLV, and Minnesota just doesn’t handle athleticism. Judging by the decreasing loss margins against Illinois, the Gophers have shown improvement, but it is those losses that ultimately kept them out of the NCAA tournament, and could make their post season experience short and not so sweet.

The Terps aren’t particularly efficient on the offensive end, ranking 60 slots lower than Minnesota, but they average 7 more possessions per game. The pace of the game will play an unusually important role in tomorrow’s game. Minnesota will need to slow it down more than usual (sorry to those watching) and will need to make the most out of their possessions. The Gophers have cut down on their turnovers of late, and this will need to continue. On the defensive end, the two teams are about even on defense, with Maryland slightly better.

Rebounding, which has been an Achilles heal for the Gophers for most of the year, will be especially problematic tomorrow night. Minnesota has been a better rebounding team against who they have played than Maryland has been against their opponents, but the key is who they have played, and the style of play. Dan Coleman is Minnesota’s only player averaging more than 5 rebounds per game. Coleman also happens to be the Gophers second leading scorer. James Gist and Bambale Osby both average more rebounds than Coleman. Garvis Vasquez, one of Maryland’s starting guards, average 5.7 rebounds per game. Both Vasquez and Gist outscore Coleman.

If the Gophers have a chance tomorrow, it will be from forcing a very turnover prone team into mistakes, and being ready to take advantage of unforced errors. The Terps play good defense, and keep opponents from scoring, but they don’t do this by taking the ball away. On the offensive end, they generously give away possessions. Minnesota does this too of course, but has still turned the ball over 70 fewer times than Maryland, while for accumulating 50 more steals. As long as you have fewer turnovers than your opponent, it doesn’t matter that much how many times you turn the ball over.

And the turnovers will keep the game much closer than it should be, but not quite enough for Minnesota to pull off what would their second most impressive win of the year (sorry Ohio State fans).

Prediction: Minnesota 64 Maryland 68

And remember, fear the sweat.

For a more Turtle oriented oppinion on tomorrow night’s game, check out Turtle Waxing. Yes, I didn’t make that name up.