From what I saw of this afternoon’s win over Northwestern, the Gophers dominated. Lawrence Westbrook aggressively pushed the ball up the court, got to the free throw line, hit a plethora and hit a plethora of mid-range jumpers. Dan Coleman played solidly on both ends of the court and made his free throws. As a team the Gophers shot moderately well, and held NU to long stretches without a point thanks to an aggressive zone defense. And who can complain about a 21-8 run.

Of course, I missed the first half, and prefer to think that it never happened. For Minnesota to have a chance tomorrow, they’ll have to forget about it too.

I don’t know how to read the Gophers performance against the Wildcats in relation to how it will affect their performance against the Hoosiers Friday night. On the one hand, maybe they will realize how lucky they were to escape with a win, and it will light a fire, or at the very least start some smoldering. On the other hand, the Gophers expended a lot more energy that they should have needed to just to beat the worst major conference basketball team, maybe ever.

The Gophers  have outplayed Indiana for the vast majority of the two games they have played. Minnesota is fragile, but Indiana looks like “the glass man” from Amelie, or maybe they are already broken.  It may not matter though, especially if Spencer Tollackson misses tomorrow’s game. He can’t jump, shoot, or really do anything against D.J. White and certain other extremely wide and jiggly Hoosier big men, but he can take up space and fouls. Even with a healthy Tollackson Minnesota has looked silly in late game situations. Minnesota’s rebounding woes have continues unabated, and will tomorrow too.

Of all the upper-tier Big Ten teams, Indiana is probably the most ripe for an upset, but of all the lower-tier teams, Minnesota is the most ripe to blown out.

Prediction: Indiana 70 Minnesota 65

Post-season basketball is something that is supposed to be exciting, something to stay home from work or class, fake an illness, take a long lunch, leave early, or at the very least keep track of over the Internet. After a dismal season last year, Minnesota bailed enough water out of the bow of the ship to make it float,  and had some bubble potential until the beginning of February. We should all be looking forward to the Big Ten Tournament right?

The Gophers play Northwestern tomorrow in the opening round game. What’s that, the thought of the Gophers mopping the floor with the Wildcats doesn’t send a chill down your spine? The thought of the Gophers being the mop, at least at the end of the game when they play Indiana doesn’t inspire you to conjure up symptoms of Yellow Fever (which include ever, muscle pain (with prominent backache), headache, shivers, loss of appetite, and nausea or vomiting for those keeping track at home). Me neither.

The problem with the Gophers is that they do what they are supposed to do. Compared to the bad surprised of yesteryear, this is a good thing.  Tomorrow should be no exception.

A couple of weeks ago Northwestern finally won a game, beating Michigan 62-60. They also came up just short against the “not quite the same since the coach got the boot” Indiana Hoosiers. Other than that, this is very much the same team the Gophers beat twice.

The Gophers should roll, and it shouldn’t be close. The biggest concern for Minnesota tomorrow will making sure no one gets hurt and that they don’t expend too much mental or physical energy in what should be a blow out. The Gophers will need to at least get to the finals to have a shot at the NCAA tournament, and to do that, they will be playing a lot of basketball in a short amount of time. A bad performance against Northwestern, even if it results in a win, could make a very difficult task nearly impossible.

Don’t feel too bad if you can’t get off work early on Thursday afternoon. The Gophers will play the Wildcats at 4pm Central Time on ESPN 2.  Its Northwestern. It should be an easy win, and if they lose, do you really want to watch that?

I’ll be back with a full preview in the next few days.

When Minnesota’s schedule came out several months ago, many Gopher fans must have had flash backs to the seemingly dozen or so time when the Minnesota Timberwolves could not pick the right ping-pong ball. The Gophers were selected to play Iowa and Purdue once each, with the Iowa game at home, and Purdue on the road. At first glance, many thought that Minnesota’s prospects for the season immediately took a hit. Iowa was going to awful, and the Gophers would win regardless of where they played the Hawkeyes. Purdue was going to be young and talented, but to young and not quite talented enough to win at The Barn. Fast forward a few months, and the Gophers may have won the lottery. They Hawkeyes beat both Michigan State and Ohio State at home, and Minnesota probably wouldn’t be able to beat Purdue anywhere.

We will find out tonight how the Gophers match up against one of the most surprising teams in the country. The #16/#19 Boilermakers come in to tonight’s game with a record of 21-6 (12-2 in the conference) with their last game being a loss at Indiana over a week ago. Before that, they won 11 straight, and haven’t lost at home since late December when lost by three to Iowa State, the same team Minnesota beat on the road.

Interesting.

Picking games based on common opponents can get out of hand very quickly, and with in six degrees of separation  it is easy to justify almost any team beating the eventual national champion. However, Purdue’s two straight home losses to the Cyclones and to Wofford do show that Purdue is beatable.

Unfortunately for the Gophers, its been a while since the Gophers have accomplished what they would need to do to beat Purdue. Minnesota hasn’t beaten a ranked team on the road, when they themselves were not ranked, since 1985. All of the current Gophers were either in diapers, or not even born. Minnesota coach Tubby Smith was an assistant coach at Virginia Commonwealth.

I write all this because even though Minnesota matches up pretty well with the Boilermakers, and some members of the national media think the Gophers have a chance tonight, it will be something of a minor miracle.

Purdue is young and balanced. No player averages more than 12 points per game, but 9 players average more than 15 minutes and 4 points per game. E’twaun Moore struggled with consistency early in the year, but has scored in double figures  in all but two conference games. In the other two games he scored 9  points. He is also an above average rebounder. Robbie Hummel is a 6′8″ forward, the best rebounder on the team, an also an excellent outside shooter (46% from three). He will inevitably cause match up problems for everyone other than Damian Johnson, assuming Johnson stays out of foul trouble.

Minnesota’s inside game will be the key to an upset. Dan Coleman once was much more active in Sunday’s win over Penn State. Unfortunately this did not translate into points. He will need to have one of his better games and hit the glass hard. Spencer Tollackson will need to play quality minutes, and at the very least pull down 5 rebounds and demonstrate that he is a threat. Jonathan Williams will need to be ready to throw his body around and make the open shot when the opportunity presents itself.

The Gopher back court is good enough to match up with just about any set of guards in the Big Ten. They may not be able to score as well as some back courts, but their excellent defense has been able make up for their occasional lack of scoring punch. However, when Minnesota is struggling on the inside, opposing defenses have made like difficult on the outside.

On talent alone, Purdue should be able to win. They have better athletes, and are not prone to mistakes. Minnesota of course forces a lot of turnovers, but so does Purdue. Purdue on occasion gives up a lot of three pointers (including 7-11 against Indiana) but Minnesota struggles from the outside, especially against athletic teams. Purdue isn’t a great rebounding team, but Minnesota has been flat out awful during several games this season.

I expect a game very similar to Minnesota’s loss at Wisconsin. Minnesota should be able to hang around, perhaps longer than Purdue is comfortable with. But ultimately, there is a reason why Purdue has a chance to win the conference title and Minnesota is playing for its post season life.

Prediction: Purdue 67 - Minnesota 61

Click here for a Purdue perspective.

You wouldn’t know it by looking at Penn State’s record, but Minnesota’s shocking, come from behind victory at Happy Valley in the first week of the Big Ten season was as close as Minnesota has come to a quality victory. Back then, the Nittany Lions were the upstart team in the conference, with consecutive road wins and a dominant player that defied traditional positions and anyone trying to guard him.  His name is Gearry Claxton, and 7 minutes into his teams next game against Wisconsin, he tore up his knee. Since then Penn State’s record is what you would expect from a one man team without their one man. A once promising season has been turned upside down, and Penn State basketball fans will have to wait at least another year.

While Penn State’s 4-9 conference record isn’t exactly unexpected, the way they have played is. Many teams in their position would have given up by now. After all, their best player, best scorer, best rebounder, and by all accounts the heart and soul of the team is now more concerned with being able to play basketball again, let alone playing for his college team, but Penn State didn’t see this as a reason to quit. They led  Ohio State well into the second half at home, nearly won at Michigan (something Ohio State couldn’t do), beat Illinois, and shocked Michigan State in what may have been the biggest upset of the year in all of college basketball. The effort, the fight, everything good about a college basketball team is stil there, but without talent they can only take you so far.

Without Claxton, the Nittany Lions’ roster has been severely depleted, but the cupboard is not completely bare. Jamelle Cornley, like Claxton, defies categorization. At only 6′5″ but weighing 240 pounds, he can play inside and out. His 11 points and 6 rebounds per game lead active member of the team (Claxton led in both categories before his injury). Ironically, Cornley was finally recovering from a nagging injury when Claxton was lost. Talor Battle, a freshman point guard, has struggled with consistency like most first year players, but has season highs of 20 points and 5 assists. In the first match-up between Penn State and Minnesota he scored 19 points, but made a few bone headed mistakes that arguably cost his team the game.

Minnesota should win rather easily tomorrow. Unfortunately, other than a probable game against Northwestern or Penn State in the conference tournament, this may be Minnesota’s last chance for a win. Tomorrow’s game should be a welcome opportunity for the Gophers to work out their rotation for the rest of the season, and possibly try out a few new offensive and defensive sets at game speed. Such opportunities are rare, especially in the Big Ten, and Minnesota would wise to use the game against Penn State to learn and improve, and not just run away with an easy win.

Prediction: Minnesota 80 - Penn State 55

For more about Penn State Basketball, and possibly a game preview, check out Happy Valley Hoops and  Penn State Hoops.

If you have any thoughts about the game or pertinent links, by all means share them in the comments.