Match-ups trump talent. Minnesota, on paper, was a much better team than Illinois. The Gophers beat teams teams that Illinois could not, won more games, had a much better season, and still lost three times to the Illini. They lost to UNLV and Florida State, but in all likelihood could have beaten teams that handled the Seminoles and the Running Rebels. I bring these teams up, because if you saw the disappointing performance that Minnesota turned in during the non-conference season against these two teams, or any of their three losses to Illinois, you should already know what to expect. Tomorrow night has a very real chance to be very ugly, Tulane in 1996 ugly, when the Gophers lost to an athletic team on their home court in the NIT by 18. The Gophers may have deserved a #4 seed in the first round of the NIT, but they are not built to beat a team like Maryland, even on their own court.

Maryland possesses all the characteristics of a team meant to be the Gophers. They are tall, athletic, big, quick, the list could go on. And remember those teams that Minnesota looked especially bad against, the Seminoles and the Illini? The Terps beat Illinois 69-61 during before the Illini imploded, and they beat Florida State by 10. Meanwhile the Gophers lost by 14 to Florida State, and by 24, 9, and 4 to Illinois. Throw in a 17 point loss to a very similar team from UNLV, and Minnesota just doesn’t handle athleticism. Judging by the decreasing loss margins against Illinois, the Gophers have shown improvement, but it is those losses that ultimately kept them out of the NCAA tournament, and could make their post season experience short and not so sweet.

The Terps aren’t particularly efficient on the offensive end, ranking 60 slots lower than Minnesota, but they average 7 more possessions per game. The pace of the game will play an unusually important role in tomorrow’s game. Minnesota will need to slow it down more than usual (sorry to those watching) and will need to make the most out of their possessions. The Gophers have cut down on their turnovers of late, and this will need to continue. On the defensive end, the two teams are about even on defense, with Maryland slightly better.

Rebounding, which has been an Achilles heal for the Gophers for most of the year, will be especially problematic tomorrow night. Minnesota has been a better rebounding team against who they have played than Maryland has been against their opponents, but the key is who they have played, and the style of play. Dan Coleman is Minnesota’s only player averaging more than 5 rebounds per game. Coleman also happens to be the Gophers second leading scorer. James Gist and Bambale Osby both average more rebounds than Coleman. Garvis Vasquez, one of Maryland’s starting guards, average 5.7 rebounds per game. Both Vasquez and Gist outscore Coleman.

If the Gophers have a chance tomorrow, it will be from forcing a very turnover prone team into mistakes, and being ready to take advantage of unforced errors. The Terps play good defense, and keep opponents from scoring, but they don’t do this by taking the ball away. On the offensive end, they generously give away possessions. Minnesota does this too of course, but has still turned the ball over 70 fewer times than Maryland, while for accumulating 50 more steals. As long as you have fewer turnovers than your opponent, it doesn’t matter that much how many times you turn the ball over.

And the turnovers will keep the game much closer than it should be, but not quite enough for Minnesota to pull off what would their second most impressive win of the year (sorry Ohio State fans).

Prediction: Minnesota 64 Maryland 68

And remember, fear the sweat.

For a more Turtle oriented oppinion on tomorrow night’s game, check out Turtle Waxing. Yes, I didn’t make that name up.

From what I saw of this afternoon’s win over Northwestern, the Gophers dominated. Lawrence Westbrook aggressively pushed the ball up the court, got to the free throw line, hit a plethora and hit a plethora of mid-range jumpers. Dan Coleman played solidly on both ends of the court and made his free throws. As a team the Gophers shot moderately well, and held NU to long stretches without a point thanks to an aggressive zone defense. And who can complain about a 21-8 run.

Of course, I missed the first half, and prefer to think that it never happened. For Minnesota to have a chance tomorrow, they’ll have to forget about it too.

I don’t know how to read the Gophers performance against the Wildcats in relation to how it will affect their performance against the Hoosiers Friday night. On the one hand, maybe they will realize how lucky they were to escape with a win, and it will light a fire, or at the very least start some smoldering. On the other hand, the Gophers expended a lot more energy that they should have needed to just to beat the worst major conference basketball team, maybe ever.

The Gophers  have outplayed Indiana for the vast majority of the two games they have played. Minnesota is fragile, but Indiana looks like “the glass man” from Amelie, or maybe they are already broken.  It may not matter though, especially if Spencer Tollackson misses tomorrow’s game. He can’t jump, shoot, or really do anything against D.J. White and certain other extremely wide and jiggly Hoosier big men, but he can take up space and fouls. Even with a healthy Tollackson Minnesota has looked silly in late game situations. Minnesota’s rebounding woes have continues unabated, and will tomorrow too.

Of all the upper-tier Big Ten teams, Indiana is probably the most ripe for an upset, but of all the lower-tier teams, Minnesota is the most ripe to blown out.

Prediction: Indiana 70 Minnesota 65

Post-season basketball is something that is supposed to be exciting, something to stay home from work or class, fake an illness, take a long lunch, leave early, or at the very least keep track of over the Internet. After a dismal season last year, Minnesota bailed enough water out of the bow of the ship to make it float,  and had some bubble potential until the beginning of February. We should all be looking forward to the Big Ten Tournament right?

The Gophers play Northwestern tomorrow in the opening round game. What’s that, the thought of the Gophers mopping the floor with the Wildcats doesn’t send a chill down your spine? The thought of the Gophers being the mop, at least at the end of the game when they play Indiana doesn’t inspire you to conjure up symptoms of Yellow Fever (which include ever, muscle pain (with prominent backache), headache, shivers, loss of appetite, and nausea or vomiting for those keeping track at home). Me neither.

The problem with the Gophers is that they do what they are supposed to do. Compared to the bad surprised of yesteryear, this is a good thing.  Tomorrow should be no exception.

A couple of weeks ago Northwestern finally won a game, beating Michigan 62-60. They also came up just short against the “not quite the same since the coach got the boot” Indiana Hoosiers. Other than that, this is very much the same team the Gophers beat twice.

The Gophers should roll, and it shouldn’t be close. The biggest concern for Minnesota tomorrow will making sure no one gets hurt and that they don’t expend too much mental or physical energy in what should be a blow out. The Gophers will need to at least get to the finals to have a shot at the NCAA tournament, and to do that, they will be playing a lot of basketball in a short amount of time. A bad performance against Northwestern, even if it results in a win, could make a very difficult task nearly impossible.

Don’t feel too bad if you can’t get off work early on Thursday afternoon. The Gophers will play the Wildcats at 4pm Central Time on ESPN 2.  Its Northwestern. It should be an easy win, and if they lose, do you really want to watch that?

I’ll be back with a full preview in the next few days.

When Minnesota’s schedule came out several months ago, many Gopher fans must have had flash backs to the seemingly dozen or so time when the Minnesota Timberwolves could not pick the right ping-pong ball. The Gophers were selected to play Iowa and Purdue once each, with the Iowa game at home, and Purdue on the road. At first glance, many thought that Minnesota’s prospects for the season immediately took a hit. Iowa was going to awful, and the Gophers would win regardless of where they played the Hawkeyes. Purdue was going to be young and talented, but to young and not quite talented enough to win at The Barn. Fast forward a few months, and the Gophers may have won the lottery. They Hawkeyes beat both Michigan State and Ohio State at home, and Minnesota probably wouldn’t be able to beat Purdue anywhere.

We will find out tonight how the Gophers match up against one of the most surprising teams in the country. The #16/#19 Boilermakers come in to tonight’s game with a record of 21-6 (12-2 in the conference) with their last game being a loss at Indiana over a week ago. Before that, they won 11 straight, and haven’t lost at home since late December when lost by three to Iowa State, the same team Minnesota beat on the road.

Interesting.

Picking games based on common opponents can get out of hand very quickly, and with in six degrees of separation  it is easy to justify almost any team beating the eventual national champion. However, Purdue’s two straight home losses to the Cyclones and to Wofford do show that Purdue is beatable.

Unfortunately for the Gophers, its been a while since the Gophers have accomplished what they would need to do to beat Purdue. Minnesota hasn’t beaten a ranked team on the road, when they themselves were not ranked, since 1985. All of the current Gophers were either in diapers, or not even born. Minnesota coach Tubby Smith was an assistant coach at Virginia Commonwealth.

I write all this because even though Minnesota matches up pretty well with the Boilermakers, and some members of the national media think the Gophers have a chance tonight, it will be something of a minor miracle.

Purdue is young and balanced. No player averages more than 12 points per game, but 9 players average more than 15 minutes and 4 points per game. E’twaun Moore struggled with consistency early in the year, but has scored in double figures  in all but two conference games. In the other two games he scored 9  points. He is also an above average rebounder. Robbie Hummel is a 6′8″ forward, the best rebounder on the team, an also an excellent outside shooter (46% from three). He will inevitably cause match up problems for everyone other than Damian Johnson, assuming Johnson stays out of foul trouble.

Minnesota’s inside game will be the key to an upset. Dan Coleman once was much more active in Sunday’s win over Penn State. Unfortunately this did not translate into points. He will need to have one of his better games and hit the glass hard. Spencer Tollackson will need to play quality minutes, and at the very least pull down 5 rebounds and demonstrate that he is a threat. Jonathan Williams will need to be ready to throw his body around and make the open shot when the opportunity presents itself.

The Gopher back court is good enough to match up with just about any set of guards in the Big Ten. They may not be able to score as well as some back courts, but their excellent defense has been able make up for their occasional lack of scoring punch. However, when Minnesota is struggling on the inside, opposing defenses have made like difficult on the outside.

On talent alone, Purdue should be able to win. They have better athletes, and are not prone to mistakes. Minnesota of course forces a lot of turnovers, but so does Purdue. Purdue on occasion gives up a lot of three pointers (including 7-11 against Indiana) but Minnesota struggles from the outside, especially against athletic teams. Purdue isn’t a great rebounding team, but Minnesota has been flat out awful during several games this season.

I expect a game very similar to Minnesota’s loss at Wisconsin. Minnesota should be able to hang around, perhaps longer than Purdue is comfortable with. But ultimately, there is a reason why Purdue has a chance to win the conference title and Minnesota is playing for its post season life.

Prediction: Purdue 67 - Minnesota 61

Click here for a Purdue perspective.