Al Nolen missed Sunday afternoon’s game against Michigan State, and the Gophers missed his steady ball handling, defense, and ability to distribute the ball particularly in the half court offense, as Minnesota lost 78-73.
At first glance, the final score could indicate that Sunday was another, albeit frustrating, sign that the Gophers barely missed another opportunity to knock off one of the Big Ten’s elite teams. However, despite the close margin on the scoreboard, the game was never in doubt. If I hadn’t seen the scoreboard, I would have guessed that we lost by 20 as I left the game. It was that bad.
Al Nolen’s bruised thigh bruised the NCAA tournament chances of the Gophers, and showed that among the many reasons for Minnesota’s improvement this year, he may be the most important. The pressure defense and organizaed offense were long gone, and sloppy and Lawrence “look at me” McKenzie were on full display.
Much of the ball handling duties were given to Lawrence Westbrook, who gave Gopher fans Rico Tucker flashbacks as he made errant passes and was out of control on fast breaks. He committed 5 first half turnovers. Though he didn’t commit any in the second half, the damage was already done. More importantly, with Westbrook running the half court offense, the Gophers were rarely able to get a shot off with more than 5 seconds on the shot clock. Lawrence McKenzie was invisible in the first half, but exploded in garbage time to finish the game with 20 points. His injured hand must not hurt when his scoring doesn’t matter. A five point loss looks a lot better on paper than a true blow out, which could prove to be important if the Gophers are able to string a few impressive wins together, but it doesn’t change the fact that the Gophers looked bad on Sunday.
If the two other Gopher seniors had shown up, we would all be heralding McKenzie’s amazing second half performance. Dan Coleman has once again abandoned attacking the basket. As has been widely reported, he will still take a few steps toward the basket, but the moment a defender approaches, he will fade far, far away. A new and even more troubling occurrence on Sunday was Coleman’s reliance on Jordan-esque turn around jumpers. Needless to say, Michael Jordan was bit more successful. But I would rather have Coleman shooting without looking at the basket than Spencer Tollackson shooting three pointers. He attempted two more on Sunday, neither of which were close.
Those shots marked a disappointing and immature day by Tollackson. In addition to poor shot selection, Spencer pumped his fist enthusiastically in the air after making a free throw. Yes, he did make a free throw, and yes, the crowd did explode, but Tollackson is sorely mistaken if he thought the crowd was genuinely excited he made a free throw. There is a reason they are called “free”. When he was standing behind either the free throw or three point line, Spencer still struggled, finishing with 7 points and 6 rebounds on 3-9 shooting. He fouled out with two and half minutes left on the final of series of dumb fouls that were the product of frustration and immaturity.
At least the Gophers watched game film and made adjustments. Two weeks ago when the Gophers lost to the Spartans for the first time, Raymar Morgan dominated with 31 points while Drew Neitzel stayed in a shooting slump. Michigan State’s big men Drew Naymick and Goran Suton played excellent but foul plagued defense. The defense was still there, MSU’s superior talent was able to overcome just about everything the Gophers threw at them. Raymar Morgan played what may have been his worst game of the season, scoring only 9 points, but Drew Neitzel shot his way out his slump in a big way. It wasn’t just that he scored 19 points and at one point made 5-6 three pointers in the second half, it was the timing. Seemingly every time Minnesota was within one point or one possession, Neitzel would find himself open on the left wing for a wide open three pointer, killing any momentum the Gophers had developed and taking the crowd out of the game. After the first two, the crowd still had hope, but after each of the next three, it became obvious to everyone in attendance that they would be going home disappointed. Even when he missed, Goran Suton battled for a rebound and inevitably made a lay up.
After all this, the Gophers only lost by 5, and Al Nolen could have made up that difference. Obviously with Nolen in the game, things would have progressed differently, and Michigan State would have adjusted to his presence. But I have a hard time believing that he wouldn’t have gotten a hand in Neitzel’s face or found an open man under the basket. His scoring, assists, and steals easily could have produced a five point swing.
Unfortunately no one knew Nolen was injured. Certain beat reporters once again failed to do their job. The real problem with reporters not doing their job is that it leads to speculation. It was anyone’s guess if Nolen was hurt, had missed practice, had failed a class, or was in some sort of legal trouble. It isn’t fair to players to not reveal, or find out, why they aren’t playing. There aren’t many good reason why a team’s most important player would miss his team’s most important game. It is the beat reporters job to make sure that no undue criticism is leveled at 18 year old kid, especially when his only mistake is getting kneed in the thigh.
Who did what?
Damian Johnson played his typical game, scoring 10 and pulling down 6 rebounds.
Dan Coleman was dreadful. If his 3-14 shooting wasn’t bad enough, his 3 rebounds were. Mr. Coleman, you are 6′9″ with a huge vertical. Please remember this.
Spencer Tollackson…
Lawrence Westbrook actually played really well despite the turnovers. He shot 60% from the floor, made 6-7 free throws, and had a career high 12 points.
Lawrence McKenzie kept the score close.
Kevin Payton didn’t actually play that bad, not enough to warrant more than 9 minutes, but nothing disastrous happened when he was on the floor.
Jonathan Williams scored 7, but didn’t get to the free throw line. One would think that that someone his size would get run into accidentally a few times each game. He takes up a lot of space.
Blake Hoffarber needs to find a way to get open.
Jamal Abu-Shamala may have officially lost his starting spot.
Its a good things that Minnesota and Michigan State each have one of the elite coaches in the country, because both teams are in need of a pep talk. Tubby Smith will need to tell the Gophers to focus on how close they came to beating the two best teams they have faced this season, while somehow erasing memories of clanking three pointers and free throws. Tom Izzo will need to convince the Spartans that the Breslin Center isn’t a mystical place where the Spartans can do no wrong, and that there talent doesn’t mysteriously disappear when they leave home. Including MSU’s dreadful (not because of who it was against but how it happened) loss at Iowa, the Spartans have lost 11 of their last 12 road games. The Spartans were able to right the ship against anOSU at home, but the newly rejuvenated Williams Arena is like it was when former Spartan coach Judd Heathcoate cursed the very existence of The Barn.
Two weeks ago when the Spartans and the Gophers played, it was much more competitive than many expected. The Gophers were able to deflect several Michigan State runs, and although they did not win, it was a signal to the rest of the Big Ten and the state of Minnesota that this Gopher teams was worth paying attention to. In that game, Raymar Morgan utterly dominated scoring 31 points and pulling down 10 rebounds. The Spartan big men, while not posting gaudy statistics, were able to clog up the lane rendering Spencer Tollackson as useless as his free throw shooting and dominating the boards. Tollackson went 5-14 two weeks ago, and the Gophers were out rebounded by 20.
So what should we expect today? We should know within the first 5 minutes of the game if the Gophers will have a chance. If they use their two recent close losses as motivation to finally get their signature win, the Spartans could be in for a long day. If the Gophers, and particularly The Barn come out flat, things could get ugly.
The Spartans have the obvious talent advantage, and if Raymar Morgan plays have as well as he did against the Gophers in East Lansing and Drew Nietzel shoots twice as well (both should probably be expected or exceeded) the Spartans should win. For the Gophers, the game may rest on the broad shoulders of Spencer Tollackson. Against Michigan State he missed countless lay ups and against the Hoosiers missed all 7 of his free throw attempts. If Tollackson can make half of his shots from the floor and the line, it could be enough to push the Gophers over the edge.
Another key will be the play of Blake Hoffarber. He has excelled against unathletic teams, but disappeared against Indiana and Michigan State. Right now he is one dimensional player, who happens to have the best jump shot in the Big Ten. In the right kind of game, he can be a game changing weapon. However, against athletic teams he has been unable to get open shots and made defensive blunders that reminded everyone that he is only 18. If Blake can get into double figures, which may have more to do with playing good enough defense to stay on the court, the Gophers should be in good shape.
Finally, as has been the case all season, Dan Coleman will need to show up. He played his most obvious game on Thursday against Indiana. In previous games he has either not shown up at all, or put up very good stats but done so so quiety that his impact on the game is only revealed through the box score. Nothing gets the Willams Arena faithful fired up more than a local kid obviously making an impact.
While the Indiana game was an opportunity to make a statement on a national stage, today’s game is an opportunity for the Gophers to make a statement to themselves. For the Gophers to still have a chance to make the tournament, they will need to get over losses quickly and come into the next game with an urgency and confidence to win. No one expects the Gophers to go on long winning streaks during the Big Ten season, but consecutive losses can be devestating.
Today’s game may be the most important of the season.
Prediction: If the Gophers have gotten over Thursday’s loss: 75-70 Minnesota
If the Gophers come out flat: 68-53 Michigan State
Saturday night’s game between Minnesota and Michigan State will inevitably be overshadowed by the coaching match-up between Tubby Smith, coaching his first game in the Big Ten, nd Tom Izzo, coach of the inevitable (but not Hillary Clinton “inevitable”) Big Ten Champions. At least the announcers and graphics guys will have plenty of statistics and bar graphs to show us, because in all likelihood there won’t be much worth watching on the court.
If Michigan State’s recent big wins (Texas and BYU) are at all indicative of how they will play Saturday night, Minnesota is in big trouble. Michigan State received a lot of attention because of their loss to D-II Grand Valley State, but that was nothing but an anomaly, as rare as a virgin birth (Christmas wasn’t that long ago, and its pretty fascinating). If anything, it was the perfect wake up call to start the season, reminding the Spartans that they aren’t invincible and that they do actually have to score more points than their opponents. An overconfident, invincible-feeling team may be the Gophers only hope. In nearly every match-up, from the leading scorers down to the student managers, the Spartans have the advantage, except of course the battle of the hair. Ryan Saunders wins again.
The Gophers only real hope is to slow the game down, and keep the Spartans in the 60s. When the Spartans are in the 60s, they only outscore their opponents by 2.3 ppg. Doing this is much easier said than done. The Gophers have had their best defensive games (in terms of points allowed) when they force a lot of turnovers. Unfortunately, most of these turnovers occur when the Gophers press incessantly, which tends to speed the game up. Both UNLV and Florida State, two much faster and more athletic teams than the Gophers, were able to break the press and get easy baskets. Even South Dakota State and Colorado State scored easily against the press once they learned not to inbound the ball to the corner or pick up the dribble before crossing center court. Minnesota will need to press at some point, but needs to pick their spots, mix it up, and not be afraid to abandon the press if it isn’t working. At the very least, the Gophers should try to play tough half-court defense the first several minutes of the game, and see how far that has gotten them.
But I still think the Gophers can win, I don’t think they will, but its possible.
If the Gophers press at seemingly random times and shorten the shot clock, it may be enough to keep Michigan State off balance and the scoring low.
Damian Johnson has the potential to neutralize Raymar Morgan. He won’t score as much as Morgan, but his scoring in addition to forcing turnovers may match Morgan’s contributions.
Al Nolen could frustrate Neitzel, but will need to play the game of his life on both ends of the floor for the Gophers to have a chance.
Blake Hoffarber, if he gets hot, could keep the Gophers in the game. Just ask Indiana about the impact a hot shooter can have.
I think one or two of the above might happen, but six three pointers in the last minute and a half of the game probably won’t be enough. I predict that the Gophers will lose 80-65. Anything from a 15-20 point loss is nothing to worry about. If the Gophers win (miraculously) or lose by less than ten, it will show they have learned a lot from their previous losses. Anything worse than a 20 point loss should be cause for concern.
And because I still haven’t gotten around to my MSU Big Ten Preview, here you go:
What we know:
With their win over Texas, Michigan State jumped from a probable champion of a mediocre conference to a legitimate national title contender. Their lone loss came against then #1 UCLA by five points. They should roll through the Big Ten schedule when they aren’t playing Indiana or Wisconsin, and they are capable of beating these teams as well. We may be hearing a lot about this experienced, well-coached team in April.
Who to watch:
Raymar Morgan has exploded, and would be well on his way to winning conference player of the year if there wasn’t a certain freshman superstar playing in Bloomington, Indiana. He has improved all facets of his game, and not by small margins either: going from 11.7 points to 17.4, 5.2 rebs to 7.1, and 49% shooting to 59% shooting. He still struggles with turnovers (2.5 per game), but even that is just nitpicking.
Drew Neitzel was on everyone’s pre-season All-America team. His scoring is down (even though he has improved his shooting percentage), but so are his turnovers. He has improved his assist to turnover ratio to 4.29 to 1, which more than makes up for the relative lack of scoring. A team-oriented Neitzel has made everyone better. Now if only he could grow some hair.
How they’ll do:
Wins: Minnesota, Purdue, at Iowa, Ohio State, at Minnesota, at Northwestern, Michigan, Illinois, at Penn State, Northwestern, at Purdue at Indiana, Penn State, Iowa, Indiana, at Illinois
Losses: at Wisconsin, Ohio State
Record: 16-2 (28-3 overall) with a #1 seed.
What we don’t know:
Do the Spartans have long memories, or will they get complacent and run into trouble against a lower tier Big Ten team?
Al Nolen missed Sunday afternoon’s game against Michigan State, and the Gophers missed his steady ball handling, defense, and ability to distribute the ball particularly in the half court offense, as Minnesota lost 78-73.
Saturday night’s game between Minnesota and Michigan State will inevitably be overshadowed by the coaching match-up between Tubby Smith, coaching his first game in the Big Ten, nd Tom Izzo, coach of the inevitable (but not Hillary Clinton “inevitable”) Big Ten Champions. At least the announcers and graphics guys will have plenty of statistics and bar graphs to show us, because in all likelihood there won’t be much worth watching on the court.
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