A win to get in

Posted on 06. Mar, 2009 by JF in 2008-2009

Golden Gophers vs. Michigan Wolverines

11:00 am (CST) at Williams Arena (Minneapolis, Minnesota)

Radio: WCCO 830 AM

TV: ESPN

Tickets: Long gone

Chatroom: Yes, chat early and often

The Michigan Perspective: UMHoops.com

It has been five months and thirty games since the season started. After twists, turns, peaks, valleys, miracle comebacks, epic failures, injuries, shocking upsets, joys, frustrations, and more than a little bewilderment, the regular season ends on Saturday when Michigan comes to Williams Arena with a trip to the NCAA tournament on the line.

No one wants to be on the bubble. It is a stressful, dangerous, and slippery place. One slip and the season is over. One shift of the bubble, and a team can be out because of events out of their control. Both Minnesota and Michigan seemed on pace to play themselves into the tournament without much worry, but both came back to reality once the conference season started, but have still done just enough to have the chance to play meaningful basketball well into March.

The final Big Ten game of the season means a lot to both teams, but it probably means more to Michigan, who could be headed to the NIT with a win on Saturday. The Gophers don’t have much margin for error, but they do have some. If they were going to win only one of their final three games (including the first round of the Big Ten tournament) it had to be at home against Wisconsin. The Badgers were the best team left on the schedule, assuming that the Gopher lose to Michigan and end up playing a poorly seeded team in the Big Ten tournament as a result. If the Gophers want to make the NCAA tournament, a win at home over the Wolverines isn’t necessary, but if they want to avoid drama, frayed nerves, and possible heart break, it is absolutely a must win.

It has been only two weeks since the Wolverines and Gophers played in Ann Arbor, when Michigan beat Minnesota by 12 but had leads as large as 21 points well into the second half. In that game, the Wolverines made thirteen three pointers, and the Gophers never found their groove on either end of the court. While the players will be the same on Saturday, the location will not, and ultimately that could decide the game.

Like most young teams, and especially like most Big Ten teams, the Gophers and Wolverines have drastically different outcomes depending on where the game is taking place. Michigan has only won one conference road game so far this year at Northwestern. Michigan won thanks to the Wildcats ice cold outside shooting (4-17 from behind the three point line), but still needed overtime thanks to their own shooting woes (7-26 thee point shooting) and 16 turnovers. It was the Wildcats worst home game of the year, and they still gave Michigan all they could handle.

The Gophers aren’t world beaters on the road either, and were dangerously close to landing in the NIT for the second year in a row following seven road losses in February alone. Lawrence Westbrook saved the day on Wednesday scoring 15 of the teams final 18 points and scoring all ten points that brought the Gophers from a five point deficit to a five point win.

This has all the makings of a classic: two surprise teams going head to head with everything on the line, the home team seeking revenge after being soundly beaten, all in front of national television audience. Michigan and Minnesota fans wanted some meaning in March Madness. This just might be more than they asked for.

Keys for the Gophers

1. Play with intensity. Even though a guaranteed trip to the NCAA tournament is on the line, there is also a real risk of a let down. Minnesota’s mid-season slide began after a similar miraculous win over Wisconsin. Hopefully the team is more motivated by post-season play than they were by Sunday afternoon trip to Northwestern. If they need to be reminded what can happen when the effort it isn’t there, they only need to look back to the last Michigan game when the impassioned Wolverines embarrassed a lazy and lackadaisical squad playing without energy or purpose.

2. Pound the ball inside. The Gophers front line is 14 feet tall. Michigan’s front line is 6’8” tall (no Zack Novak, you aren’t a Big Ten power forward, but neither is your doppelganger Travis Busch). In the last game between these two teams, Ralph Sampson III, Damian Johnson, and Colton Iverson shot a combined 80%…on 8-10 shooting. The Gophers dominated the paint against the undersized (but much bigger than Michigan) Wisconsin front court.

3. Don’t play Michigan’s game. Last time, the Gophers fell right into the Wolverine’s lap, jacking up quick three pointers, and letting the Wolverines set up on offense. The three point opportunities will be there thanks to the 1-3-1 zone defense, but the Gophers need to be willing to work for the better, and actually makeable shot. On defense, the Gophers need to press like they did at home against Northwestern. It won’t necessarily force a lot of turnovers (Michigan ranks #15 in the country at taking care of the ball) but it will keep them off balance and eat up some of the shot clock.

Keys for the Wolverines

1. Control the boards. Minnesota’s best offensive option lately has been put backs off of offensive rebounds. They had only four all night in Ann Arbor, and there one and done possessions were hardly productive. Poor shooting teams need more shots to score, and if Minnesota does not get them, they do not score.

2. Make three pointers. Almost half their shots, and more than a third of their points come from behind the three point line. They also happen to be a worse outside shooting team than the Gophers. Live by the three, die by the three.

3. Take the crowd out of the game. The Wolverines have struggled in hostile environment, and it remains to be seen whether the Williams Arena crowd is confident enough to withstand a fast start.

Key Players for the Gophers

1. Lawrence Westbrook is the heart and soul of the Gophers, and the team is undefeated when he is their leading scorer.

2. Damian Johnson continued his impressive and versatile play against Wisconsin, but can get lost in against zone defenses. He will need to drive to be effective. He’ll also be tasked with guarding Manny Harris, which is no small task.

3. Devoe Joseph had something of a breakout game in Ann Arbor. He should be the Gophers best option at point guard with Al Nolen’s notorious difficulty against zone defenses.

Key Players for the Wolverines

1. Manny Harris is Michigan’s best player, but his turnover total is quickly approaching his field goal total in games against the Gophers. If Michigan’s outside shots are not falling, Harris is their best offensive option, driving to the basket.

2. Deshawn Sims is as effective as his mid-range jumper. His ability to pull Minnesota’s freshman centers away from the basket not only lets him put the ball on the floor, but it also eliminates the Gophers shot blocking and rebounding opportunities.

3. Zack Novak set the tone early last time, and finished with 18 points, all on three pointers. He is a huge liability on defense when exploited, and needs to knock down the outside shots, while at least trying to cover a player 7 inches taller than he is on defense.

Prediction: The Gophers win, only because the game is at home, 62-55.

Tags: Damian Johnson, DeShawn Sims, Devoe Joseph, Game Preview, Lawrence Westbrook, Michigan Wolverines, Williams Arena, Zack Novak