Three streaks down, another to go?
Posted on February 26, 2009 by JF in 2008-2009
Golden Gophers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
6:00 pm (CST) at Assembly Hall
Radio: WCCO 830 AM
Tv: Big Ten Network
Liveblog: Yup
In a season of snapped streaks this one might be too much. After winning at Wisconsin, beating Illinois, and sweeping Indiana for the first time in far too long, the Gophers attempt to break Illinois’s stranglehold at Assembly Hall that has existed for thirty years. Unlike Sunday’s game against that other Big Ten team from Illinois, this is hardly a must-win. The Gophers need two more wins to lock themselves into the NCAA tournament, and with two winnable home games coming up, a win would be a boost, but not necessary. However, if the Gophers plan on winning only one more game, it will need to be this. Let’s hope it remains a resume boost and not a season saver.
It is anybody’s guess which teams will show up tomorrow night. One team will be wearing either gold or maroon and the other with be wearing orange. Just as each team has two distinct colors of jerseys, they have two distinct personalities. Thank goodness the University of Illinois has had a psychology department for over 100 years. Illinois is safely in the NCAA tournament with an overall record of 22-6 and with a Big Ten record of 10-5, they still have an outside shot at winning the conference championship. Like the Gophers though, consistency has been a problem. They have failed to break 40 twice this season, in the first game against Minnesota this season and most recently at home against Penn State where they lost 39-33. Just four days later, they played their best offensive game of the conference season and beat Ohio State in a real barn burner, at least compared to their 33 point effort, 70-68.
With the bipolar nature of both teams, it may be best to set expectations aside, which should reduce the mass confusion caused when a third personality of each team takes the court on Thursday night. For those that enjoy unpredictability, the Illini do have some consistent strengths and weaknesses. Illinois is strongest on defense, where they are the fifth best team in the country at defending three pointers and hold opponents to 44% shooting inside the three point line. Somewhat inexplicably, and completely beyond their control, they hold their opponents to the lowest free throw shooting percentage in the country. Congratulations Orange Krush? Coupled with the Illini’s ability to keep their opponents off the free throw line (14th in the country) they enjoy quite the advantage when the clock is stopped. For a team that has failed to break the 40 point barrier twice in the same season, their offense is pretty good, average, but good for a team that can’t break forty.
The real problem with Illinois’s offense is the same as Minnesota’s. Neither team has a primary ball handler that is an offensive threat. Chester Fraizer, who is one of the top assisters in the conference, averages only four shots per game, and they come only on fast breaks or when he is wide open. There is really no reason to pay any attention to him when he has the ball, and it ultimately creates a four on five disadvantage for the Illini. Al Nolen isn’t going to win a game of horse very often, but he is at least a threat to shoot.
Keys for the Gophers
1. Double the post carefully. With Illinois size and skill on the inside, there will inevitably be situations in which Colton Iverson or Ralph Sampson will need help. However, leaving Trent Meacham open will result in a very long night for the Gophers
2. Mix up the defenses. Minnesota’s offense is better when they press, but it can lead to easy baskets. Illinois can’t score against straight up man to man, but the Gophers struggle in slow paced games. The best bet for the Gophers is to keep Illinois guessing and be strategic about the press.
3. Stop the silly turnovers. Against Northwestern, the turnover total was high, but acceptable because the turnovers were a result of aggressiveness. Long losing streaks don’t end with dumb turnovers, and the Gophers need to be careful to avoid them.
Keys for the Illini
1. Attack the basket. They have two of the best penetrating guards in the conference and two of the best big men, but all too often they are content to pass the ball around the perimeter and take outside shots. Does this sound familiar?
2. Get the ball inside. The Mike’s (Davis and Tisdale) are both threats for a double double every game.
3. Offensive rebounding. Even though they missed 36 shots in Minneapolis, the grabbed only 6 offensive rebounds. Teams that struggle on offense need to clean up their garbage.
Key Players for the Gophers
1. Devron Bostick may be the most versatile offensive player for the Gophers and entered the Northwestern game early.
2. Ralph Sampson will need to play solid defense and stay out of foul trouble.
3. Lawrence Westbrook needs to find the gaps in the defense and shoot before it is too late.
Key Players for the Illini
1. Chester Fraizer needs to give the Gophers a reason to guard him.
2. Mike Davis needs to grab some offensive rebounds.
3. Demetri McCamey needs to show that he is a reliable offensive threat even when his teammates are struggling.
Prediction: I’m not touching this one. I’m just hoping for a Gopher win.
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