Bubbles to be busted at Bryce Jordan

Posted on 13. Feb, 2009 by JF in 2008-2009

Golden Gophers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

12:30 pm (CST) at Bryce Jordan Center

Radio: WCCO 830 AM

Tv: Big Ten Network

Chatroom: Yup

And now things get serious. After struggling to lose at home against Indiana on Tuesday night (that had to be the Gophers’ goal, right?) the Gophers travel to Penn State for a Saturday afternoon that is much more than just a typical game between middle of the road Big Ten teams. Last season the only implication of a match-up between the fifth and sixth best teams in the Big Ten would have been on seeding in the NIT. A year later it could go along way towards determining a trip to the NCAA tournament.

Despite their poor play of late, the Gophers are not yet in bubble trouble. Their win over Louisville more than made up for a weak non-conference schedule and wins over Ohio State, Illinois, and Wisconsin did enough to show that that Louisville win was not just a fluke. Penn State on the other hand is in real bubble trouble. Penn State’s non-conference schedule makes Minnesota’s parade of cup cakes look like the upper division of the Big East, leaving the Nittany Lions little room for error during the conference season. Until two weeks ago Penn State hadn’t made many errors. They were 6-3 in the conference with wins over Purdue and Michigan State, and were the surprising team in the conference. That success came at a cost though, in the form of extended minutes by their key players. Talor Battle, Jamelle Cornley, and Stanley Pringle all average more than 30 minutes per game. In comparison, Al Nolen leads the Gophers with almost 28 minutes per game. Obviously quality players like Penn State’s “Big Three” will play more than non-stars, which make up Minnesota’s entire, but no team in the country seems to be in as much danger of running out of gas as Penn State. Only twelve players in the country have played more minutes than Battle, and Cornley ranks in the top 100.

That much playing time played to Penn State’s advantage in the early going, but it is starting to take its toll. Talor Battle is 7 of his last 38 from the field. Stanley Pringle is 9 of his last 32. Jamelle Cornley has tried to pick up the slack, but as his teams only remaining weapon, it is only a matter of time before he runs out of gas too. Not surprisingly, with two of their top three players hitting the wall, Penn State’s road to the tournament is also obstructed. They have lost their last three games to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Purdue by a total of 44 points, and didn’t score more than 51 points in any of those contests. Penn State still has the talent, but they may be too exhausted at this point for it to matter.

Penn State remains much better at offense than they are at defense, despite their latest shooting woes. They are among the best in the Big Ten at avoiding turnovers, shoot 37.6% from the three point line and 48.5% from inside the three point line. Their three point shooting is better than Minnesota’s and their two point shooting is slightly worse. Penn State is not pretty at the free throw line, making only 64.6%, and compounding their poor shooting is their inability to get to the line, which ranks 216th in the country.

Defensively, Penn State has real problems. They rarely force turnovers, allow opponents to make 50.3% of shots inside the three point line, and are not a shot blocking threat at all. They are great on paper at stopping three point shooters, but the Gophers made all nine of their attempts in the first game against the Nittany Lions, so that could even be problematic.

Penn State still has a smallish line up, but holds their own on the defensive boards. They don’t rebound on the offensive end well, but managed to corral a greater percentage of offensive rebounds in the earlier meeting between these two teams.

Keys for the Gophers

1. Limit three point shot attempts. After their lights out 9-9 outing earlier against Penn State, it could be tempting for the Gophers to shoot a lot more than nine three pointers on Saturday. If they do it is a recipe for disaster. Minnesota shot so well in that game because they only attempted wide-open shots. With their continued shooting struggles, the Gophers will need to be careful not to hoist up shots without much hope of going in.

2. Limit turnovers. This has been a key for the last several games, and it will continue to be until the Gophers find a way to take care of the ball. Luckily, Penn State doesn’t force many turnovers, though that won’t matter if the unforced turnovers keep piling up.

3. Get off to a good start. The Gophers don’t need to be up by twenty, or even up by one, but they will need to be competitive in the early going. With such poor shooting the Gophers aren’t built to make comebacks.

Keys for the Nittany Lions

1. Make free throws. This should be a close game, and that can’t afford to give away free points.

2. Sag off the Gopher shooters. They should force the Gophers to prove they can make outside shots before they play tight defense.

3. Find a fourth option. Three players have carried the load for the first three fourths of the season. Someone needs to step up.

Key Players for the Gophers

1. Damian Johnson hasn’t played well, and Tubby Smith has called him out. Minnesota won’t win if he fouls out again without scoring.

2. Al Nolen needs to make at least one outside shot in the early going. It would force Penn State to play up on him, and would open up the entire offense.

3. Lawrence Westbrook needs to find his shot and start streaking in the right direction.

Key Players for the Nittany Lions

1. “The Big Three” needs to have at the very least an average game.

2. Andrew Jones has shown flashes of being a reliable scorer and rebounder, but lately he hasn’t had enough opportunities to make much of an impact.

3. Player X, whomever he is, needs to step up.

Prediction: Both teams are heading in the wrong direction, and are desperately trying to straighten things out before it is too late. Neither team is having much success on offense, but the Gophers have shown they can find a way to win even when their shots aren’t falling, and they will on Saturday too. Gophers win 55-50, as ACC fans roll their collective eyes.

Tags: Al Nolen, Andrew Jones, Damian Johnson, Game Preview, Jamelle Cornley, Lawrence Westbrook, Stanley Pringle, Talor Battle, Tubby Smith